Toll Brothers’s model sale is part of a trend

Toll Brothers’s model sale is part of a trend

Highlights:
  • Tolls Brothers is putting a fully furnished model home in Parker on the market.
  • The asking price is about $900,000.
  • The transaction is a microcosm of the overall market.

Toll Brothers has puts its Valmont model on the marker for just under $900,000.

Toll Brothers has puts its Valmont model on the marker for just under $900,000.

In the latest sign of how hot the high-end, new home building market has become, Toll Brothers announced it has put its fully furnished model home on the market in a community in Parker, because almost everything else has been sold at the Estates at Pine Bluffs.

The model home with almost 6,000 square feet, including the finished walkout basement, is priced at just under $900,000.

“The market is very hot and we are going to be see more models going on the market as new home subdivisions sell out,” said Denver-area housing consultant, S. Robert August.

“In 40 years in the business, the market has never been like this,” August said. “The only way to talk about the market from a few years ago was doom and gloom. Builders getting to the point of selling models was inconceivable just a couple of years ago.”

There has been a sea change in the market, he said.

There is pent-up demand from the last seven or eight years,” August said. 
 “Consumers are now more comfortable with their jobs and consumer confidence is high,” August said. “The Denver unemployment rate is the lowest in four years. And, of course, mortgage rates are crazy low.”

Due to the lack of inventory for new homes and resale homes, the biggest problems facing builders is that they need land, he said.

“Many builders won’t be able to come out of the ground with new product for six to 12 months, as they sell out their communities,” August said.

More builders in the Denver-area will increasingly be selling their models, as they sellout subdivisions and begin searching for new land in the area, said Jeff Whiton, president and CEO of the Home Builders Association of Metro Denver.

He noted that Toll, for example, recently announced it is buying 387 lots in Anthem Ranch in Broomfield, expanding its active-adult “Active Living” brand in the Western U.S.

“The ultimate objective of every builders is to sell through their community and go out and find a replacement for it,” Whiton said.

There has been a huge demand for new homes, as prospective buyers have struggled to find resale homes, Whiton said.

There were only 6,798 unsold homes on the market at the end of February, a 32.7 percent drop from the 10,086 at the end of February 2012, according to an earlier report based on Metrolist data by independent broker Gary Bauer.

“There is nothing for sale on the market right now other than mid-rise and high-rise units,” August said.

‘The lack of resale inventory is part of,” what is driving demand for new homes, Whiton said.

“The other thing is that new homes have all the latest gadgets and technology and design,” Whiton said.

“The other advantage of new homes is they are far more energy-efficient than resales homes,” Whiton said. “The homes built today are probably 30 percent to 40 percent more energy-efficient than homes built five, 10 or 15 years ago, much less the older stock of resale homes.”

New home building permits in the metro area last year were up about 45 percent, he said.

“The market basically died after 2007,” Whiton said. “However, we are still down 35 percent or 40 percent from the peak, so we have a long way to go.”

Toll’s model home for sale is the two-story Valmont Craftsman design with 4,246 square feet of space on the first two levels, plus a 1,724-square-foot, fully finished basement.

To learn more, please visit: Estates at Pine Bluffs.

 

John Marcotte

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Light Rail expansion to boost home prices

 Light Rail expansion to boost home prices

Highlights:

  • The W Line, the first leg of FasTracks, opens April 26. 
  • Homes near the light-rail line can expect double-digit appreciation.

By Melissa Olson

Special to InsideRealEstateNews.com

When the West Rail Line opens later this month, nearby homeowners not only can look forward to hopping the first completed FasTrack’s light rail line, but can also expect double-digit home appreciation in the next few years.

“Generally, homeowners close to light rail stops can expect to see their values increase by nearly five percent in the first year, 10 to 11 percent in the second year and between 15 and 16 percent in the third year following the opening of (a light-rail) line,” according to Gary Bauer, an independent Realtor.

Bauer was one of about 110 Realtors who recently rode the 12.1-mile West Rail Line, or W Line, which is scheduled to open on April 26. (The “West Corridor” or “West Rail Line” is the name of the infrastructure itself, while “W Line” is the name of the operational service on the infrastructure.)

The sneak preview of the line on Wednesday was sponsored by the Denver Metro Association of Realtors. The line connects Denver Union Station to Golden.

“The Denver Metro Association of Realtors (has been a longtime supporter of the RTD expansion and we’re extremely excited to be able to arrange previews like this for our members,” said Dave Pike, DMAR president.

“Realtors are a crucial part of Denver’s economy,” Pike said. “It’s important they have the local expertise needed to anticipate opportunities for buyers and sellers throughout the metro area. By organizing events like today’s pre-opening ride on the RTD West Line, DMAR members are able to get invaluable experiences that ultimately help in counseling their buyers and sellers.”

Voters approved the $4.7 billion FasTracks in 2004. The West Line cost $707 million and is expected to serve 20,000 commuters each day.

Lakewood Mayor Bob Murphy was one of the speakers to address the Realtors. He discussed the virtues of what are known as transit-oriented developments near light rail stations.

Murphy said a 1,300 unit mixed use development near the Federal Center has drawn international interest and the “horseshoe” portion of the line is anticipated to be a major commuter hub.

Other future development include a new arts district that will be established north of West Colfax Avenue, a railroad restoration and exhibit museum and student housing opportunities.

The RTD Light Rail Station on the W Line.  Photo Credit: http://www.kristalsellsdenver.com

The RTD Light Rail Station on the W Line. Photo CreditKristal Kraft

RTD will provide 5,600 parking spaces along the W Line along with $2 million invested by the City of Lakewood to improve bike paths and public art installations planned for the stations, neighborhood walk-up stations, which will make the daily commute much more amenable.

Several employers, such as St. Anthony’s Hospital in Lakewood and DaVita in downtown Denver, sought locations with easy access to the new stations as well as other commercial development projects, bringing thousands of employees to Lakewood each day.

“This will have a very positive impact on the City of Lakewood and homeowners within two to three blocks of the light rail line,” Bauer said.

It also will be great for those on the West side who work in downtown Denver who want to leave their cars at home, he said.

“Downtown commuters will really see the value of these investments,” added Bauer.

Completed eight months ahead of schedule, the W Line has been undergoing trial runs and emergency responder testing.

“The completion of the W Line is really a great example of collaboration among the various agencies needed to make this a reality,” Bauer said.

The W Line features 11 new stations, and will be the first light rail line to run through neighborhoods with 20 at-grade crossings.

“As a Denver native, I am thrilled to witness the transportation vision our local government leaders set into motion several decades ago, said Anthony Rael, a Realtor with RE/MAX Alliance who rode the rail line.

“The new RTD light rail West Line is the latest great achievement in our community and will really create high demand for Lakewood homes,” Rael added.

“Easy access from Lakewood to downtown Denver is a key factor for homebuyers.”

Melissa Olson has more than 20 years of experience in marketing and public relations, spanning a number of industries.  As the marketing director for the largest multiple listing service (MLS) in Colorado, she produced monthly housing reports and analyses for metro Denver over the past eight years. 

 

 

John Marcotte

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Suburban Blight & the Affordable Housing Conundrum

Suburban Blight & the Affordable Housing Conundrum

As the urban revival in some American cities pushes out lower-income earners to the nearby suburbs, many of those edge cities are struggling to redefine their purpose—and identity—in a new economy.

According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, nearly half (47%) of the nation’s 1,700 “first-tier suburbs” are vulnerable, meaning the area’s poverty rate is rising while its population and property values are declining. In a sense, these first-tier suburbs are experiencing what many urban centers experienced in the 1960s and ’70s as higher earners moved away and were replaced by lower-income families.

At the National League of Cities’ Congressional City Conference in Washington, D.C., last week, officials from such distressed suburbs said one of their biggest struggles is with low-income and public housing. It’s the easiest type of housing to build from a federal grant perspective, but some local officials say they’re becoming oversaturated with it. Additionally, social services in these suburban communities are struggling under the weight of the new population as more lower-income residents move in.

“The rise of suburban poverty in the suburbs…really deepens our challenge at a time when we are fiscally least prepared to deal with it,” David Sander, a councilmember in Rancho Cordova, Calif., a suburb of Sacramento, told a room packed with his counterparts from across the country.

Providing enough affordable housing for lower-income earners isn’t the only challenge that suburban communities face. An Urban Land Institute study on Baltimore and Southern California suburbs found a strong correlation between new affordable housing and communities that continue to decline economically.

“One of the conclusions was, if you are a first-tier suburb interested in turning yourself around, be extremely cautious about adding too much affordable housing,” Sander said.

Lastly, engaging residents who are invested in the suburban community is key. In doing so, city officials need to shift from thinking of their residents as customers to thinking of them as community partners.

“You can make your dollar go a lot further if you can get citizens actively engaged in helping you promote the city’s vision,” Sanders said.

Liz Farmer is a finance writer for Governing Magazine. You can view this original post at Governing.com

 

Boulder homes sales continue to be on the rise!

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Economic Growth Poised to Strengthen

Economic Growth Poised to Strengthen

economic_growth_cash_grass The strong jobs report and the rebound in consumer confidence in February suggested that businesses and consumers set aside their worries about fiscal drag ahead of the looming sequestration deadline, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group. Activity in both the stock and housing markets also picked up recently and continues to act as a tailwind for the economy. Furthermore, the pace of manufacturing and service activity has expanded at a healthy pace and should contribute to growth this quarter. Although income and consumer spending took a hit at the start of the year and may slow again due primarily to tax increases, overall economic growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year, coming in at 2.1 percent in 2013. To help with this growth, the installation of a caged fixed ladder would be a great help for easier access in the manufacturing company.

 

“While consumers seemed to have shrugged off their concerns about the fiscal policy debate earlier in the year, they will likely face headwinds in coming months from the delayed impact of higher social security taxes and sequestration,” says Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “Our March forecast indicates that the first quarter will be stronger than we originally thought, and we’ve certainly stepped back from any perception of there being a recession anytime soon. The broad-based gains in the jobs report suggest that the recovery is widening across the economy, but the impact of sequestration, which includes both layoffs and furloughs, may seep into the employment sector in coming months. On balance, we see some improvement in our outlook for growth this year, primarily because of continued strength in the housing market and the kicking the can down the road as remaining fiscal issues continue to unfold.”

Housing indicators showed mixed performance in early 2013, but the market is continuing its upward trajectory. Home prices have increased significantly and are expected to firm further, helping to boost household net worth and providing support to consumers amid ongoing fiscal tightening.

For more information, visit www.fanniemae.com

 

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NAHB Says: New Home Sales Readjust

NAHB Says: New Home Sales Readjust

New home sales were down 4.6 percent in February from January but up 12.3 percent from a year ago. The drop in February was from an elevated January that was the highest since mid-2008. The inventory of unsold new homes remains very low by historic standards at 4.4 month’s supply.

Regionally, the Midwest was the only region with an increase, up 14 percent to an annual rate of 58,000. The Northeast was down 13 percent in a month with significant snow fall. The South was down 10 percent from January and down 6 percent from a year ago. The region did have more rainfall than usual during February and the 2013 average so far remains above the first three quarter averages in 2012. The West fell 2 percent but remains at levels last seen since early 2008.

Median sales prices rose 3 percent from last year because more of the homes sold were in the $400,000 plus bracket rather than inflation in individual home prices. Additional house price increases are expected as building costs rise. Building material prices, especially critical components such as lumber and wood sheets, have risen significantly in the past year, labor costs are beginning to rise as builders try to attract lost workers back to the industry and lot prices are starting to rise as the inventory from the past boom is finally absorb but no new development has taken place.

The February sales pace of 411,000 is in line with expectations for the year. NAHB expects new home sales to average 449,000 for 2013 as more consumers regain the confidence to purchase a home. At that rate, the home building industry remains at less than two-thirds of what would be considered a normal market.

View this original post on the NAHB blog, Eye on Housing

 

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John Marcotte

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Suburban Blight & the Affordable Housing Conundrum

Suburban Blight & the Affordable Housing Conundrum

As the urban revival in some American cities pushes out lower-income earners to the nearby suburbs, many of those edge cities are struggling to redefine their purpose—and identity—in a new economy.

According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, nearly half (47 percent) of the nation’s 1,700 “first-tier suburbs” are vulnerable, meaning the area’s poverty rate is rising while its population and property values are declining. In a sense, these first-tier suburbs are experiencing what many urban centers experienced in the 1960s and ’70s as higher earners moved away and were replaced by lower-income families.

At the National League of Cities’ Congressional City Conference in Washington, D.C., last week, officials from such distressed suburbs said one of their biggest struggles is with low-income and public housing. It’s the easiest type of housing to build from a federal grant perspective, but some local officials say they’re becoming oversaturated with it. Additionally, social services in these suburban communities are struggling under the weight of the new population as more lower-income residents move in.

“The rise of suburban poverty in the suburbs…really deepens our challenge at a time when we are fiscally least prepared to deal with it,” David Sander, a councilmember in Rancho Cordova, Calif., a suburb of Sacramento, told a room packed with his counterparts from across the country.

Providing enough affordable housing for lower-income earners isn’t the only challenge that suburban communities face. An Urban Land Institute study on Baltimore and Southern California suburbs found a strong correlation between new affordable housing and communities that continue to decline economically.

“One of the conclusions [of the study] was, if you are a first-tier suburb interested in turning yourself around, be extremely cautious about adding too much affordable housing,” Sander said.

Several conference attendees, however, pointed out that federal housing grants for suburban communities tend to be geared toward low-income housing, making it difficult for cash-strapped communities to build a variety of housing that attracts all income levels. John Zanmiller, mayor of West St. Paul, Minn., said his town was recently denied a federal housing grant.

“We met the existing target with market-rate, affordable housing but we hadn’t enough public housing,” he said.

But there are ways to combat a declining median income, according to Sander. Although it’s a “fallacy” to assume a city or town can develop its way out of a problem, he said creating a sense of place is vital to attracting new residents. The focal point of a community doesn’t have to be a 10-block main street but it should have some major draw — whether it’s a theater, museum or major employer. Many communities, for example, are embracing the arts and doing so in a way that reflects the increasingly diverse population of first-tier suburbs.

Liz Farmer is a finance writer for Governing Magazine. You can view this original post at Governing.com

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State-Level Mortgage Interest Deduction Statistics

State-Level Mortgage Interest Deduction Statistics

The tax benefits of the mortgage interest deduction (MID) are primarily targeted to the middle class. According to 2012 Congressional estimates, 65.4 percent of the tax benefit is collected by households who have economic income of less than $200,000.

Of course, the claims for the MID are going to vary state-to-state given differences in house prices and other costs of living, household incomes, and tax items such as property taxes or state income/sales taxes, which in part determine whether a homeowner claims the standard deduction.

Fortunately, the Internal Revenue Service publishes state-level data of tax statistics. And these state level data, for which the income classifier is equal to adjusted gross income (AGI), illustrate the degree to which MID-benefiting taxpayers are concentrated in the middle class.

mid_200k-2

 

 

The map above reports the share of taxpayers who claimed the MID on 2010 federal income tax return (the most recent data available) and who also report less than $200,000 in adjusted gross income. Not surprisingly, the share tends to drop somewhat in high cost states, such as New York and California, for which household incomes tend to be higher. Nationally for 2010, 91 percent of taxpayers claiming the MID has an AGI of less than $200,000.

Of course, income, homeownership status, and tax characteristics are not fixed across one’s life-cycle. For example, interest payments for a fixed rate mortgage are larger in the early years of a mortgage, thus the potential deduction amount for the MID is higher for recent homebuyers.

View this original post on the NAHB blog, Eye on Housing

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Home Prices Expected to Rise at least 3.3 Percent Annually through 2017

Home Prices Expected to Rise at least 3.3 Percent Annually through 2017

home_prices_rising The housing recovery is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent through the third quarter of this year, then gain momentum and prices are projected to grow 3.7 percent between the third quarters of 2013 and 2014 until settling down to 3.3 percent annual increases over the next three years according to Fiserv, a financial services technology provider using data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

Both home prices and home sales volumes increased steadily last year, making 2012 the first positive year for both prices and sales since the housing market crash, excluding gains induced by the home buyer tax credits in 2009 and 2010.

“Although some recent real estate activity has been speculative, it seems as if buyers have more realistic expectations about housing market returns after having lived through the largest housing market crash in U.S. history,” says David Stiff, chief economist, Fiserv.

“2012 was the first year since 1997 that the housing market has resembled something recognizable as normal. For the past 15 years, home price changes and sales volumes have either been boosted by a bubble mentality or crushed by crash psychology,” continues Stiff.

“Back in 1997, housing prices grew 3 percent, just below the 5 percent long-term average rate of appreciation. From 1998 to 2006, prices appreciated at levels above 5 percent, with double-digit price increases in many of those years. Then, after 2006, the market collapsed as euphoria turned to panic. It took until the end of 2011 before housing markets finally started to stabilize. The latest Case-Shiller results show a return to a historically normal pace of price appreciation in the last year.”

The recovery in home prices has been solid and broad-based. At the end of the 2012 third quarter, prices were rising in approximately 62 percent of all U.S. metro areas, compared to 12.5 percent in the same period a year ago. Average U.S. home prices increased 3.6 percent from the third quarter of 2011 to the comparable period of 2012. Many of the metro areas that suffered the most severe declines during the housing market crash enjoyed the highest price increases in that period.

 

For more information, visit www.realestateeconomywatch.com

 

John Marcotte

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Existing home sales edge higher, inventory at 13-year low

Existing home sales edge higher, inventory at 13-year low

A vacant and blighted house sits next to a well-kept occupied house in a once thriving eastside neighborhood in Detroit, Michigan January 23, 2013. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook

U.S. home resales edged higher in January and left the supply of homes at its lowest level in 13 years, a sign that steam is gathering in the U.S. housing market.

The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday that existing home sales rose 0.4 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.92 million units.

That was the second highest rate of sales since November 2009, when a federal tax credit for home buyers was due to expire.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 4.9 million-unit rate.

The U.S. housing market tanked on the eve of the 2007-09 recession and has yet to fully recover, but steady job creation helped the housing sector last year, when it added to economic growth for the first time since 2005.

The nation’s inventory of existing homes for sale, which is not seasonally adjusted, fell 4.9 percent from December to 1.74 million, the lowest level since December 1999.

Many Americans are holding back from putting their homes on the market because they owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. A sharp drop in inventories over the last year has given developers more incentive to build homes. Home building is expected to boost the economymore in 2013 than it did last year.

Inventories were down 25.3 percent from January 2012.

At the current pace of sales, inventories would be exhausted in 4.2 months, the lowest rate since April 2005.

The low inventories are also helping pushing prices higher.

Nationwide, the median price for a home resale was $173,600 in January, up 12.3 percent from a year earlier.

(Reporting by Jason Lange)

 

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FHFA House Price Index Up 0.6 Percent in November

FHFA House Price Index Up 0.6 Percent in November

U.S. house prices rose 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from October to November, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.5 percent increase in October was revised upward to a 0.6 percent increase. For the 12 months ending in November, U.S. prices rose 5.6 percent. The U.S. index is 15.2 percent below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the August 2004 index level. National home prices have not declined on a monthly basis since January 2012.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from October to November ranged from -1.0 percent in the East North Central division to +2.1 percent in the Mountain division, while the 12-month changes ranged from +0.5 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +14.8 percent in the Mountain division. FHFA uses the purchase prices of houses with mortgages owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to calculate the monthly index. Monthly index values and appreciation rate estimates for recent periods are provided in the table and graphs on the following pages.

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John Marcotte

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